Category Archives: Oil Shockwave

EV Roadmap 4- Getting to a Million

Sponsored by Portland State University and PGE, the EV Roadmap series recently completed its fourth iteration. George Beard, Strategic Business Alliance Builder Extraordinaire, constructed the conference around the theme of “Getting to a Million” and interwove the pragmatic with the aspirational.
I have been attending them since the beginning (Nov/09) and always find something intriguing and hopeful in the two days. This time was no exception.

Of particular interest was the conference’s use of electronic polling of the audience the results of which were displayed on the big screen.  Questions ranged from factual knowledge (how much oil does the US import each year?) to subjective conclusions (how likely is Oregon to meet its EV objectives?)

Most provocative was Sam Ori’s presentation of Oil Shockwave, designed to to incite awareness of how precarious the perch is of the United States when it comes to global oil production interruption.  Oil Shockwave is designed to bring seasoned domestic security decisionmakers to confront a terrorist attack  at Saudi Arabia’s Abaquiq oil refinery compounded by geopolitical intrigue.  As a country, we are only 3% (of global oil production)  away from massive price spikes and severe economic damage.   Sam also related that the Saudi’s recently let slip they do not want to cause such price spikes because it will hasten the developed world’s transition to renewable energy sources.

In Oregon’s case, we have assigned for ourselves the goal of achieving 30,000 EVs sales by 2015, tripling our pro rata share of Obama’s national goal.  This means that 2012 will be a BIG year if we are to stay on track to meet those numbers. According to Charlie Allcock, PGE’s Director of Business Development,  we will be facing formidable challenges including ongoing unemployment, high MSRP, and diminishing tax credit incentives.   If we are to meet just the one percent goal of 10,000 vehicles, we will need to sell 2000 new EVs by the end of 2012.

How do we get there?  The solution lies in a multi-pronged approach. 

We must stress consumer education and outreach.  [Oregon’s Governor’s Transportation Electrification Executive Council  (TEEC) is promoting a strategy of “eyeballs and seats” which presumes that the more vehicles out and about in public, the more people will begin to entertain EVs as an alternative to conventional vehicles.  Providing visibility, driving experience, and broadcasting a positive message using all forms of media (including blogs!) will help inspire change.  The focus group that was videoed live at the conference showed many EV myths remain, including perceptions that the vehicles are prohibitively expensive, have limited range and speed, and take too long to charge.]

We must assist fleet managers in running the numbers to show the long-term operational cost advantages presented by EVs, especially when fuel price volatility is introduced.

We must get people to begin to assess their driving habits, operational costs and routines so their next vehicle purchase  is based on choice of electrified transport that accounts for these realities.

We must start our own social movement by engaging social networks and creating toolkits to promote social engagement with the personal and public virtues of EVs. [Check out Nathan Pinsley, a strategist at Purpose.com, who provided one of the more interesting presentations on bridging the gap from early adopters to mainstream]

We must continue to subsidize technologic innovation to fuel progress in battery development and continued downward trajectory of pricing.

We must build strategic partnerships between electric utilities, smart grid technologies, and regulatory authorities.

We must NOT rely upon Washington to solve our energy problems given the partisan divide and gridlock.  No more federal loan guarantees or manufacturing tax incentives are imminent.   States and regions must provide their own set of solutions.

If we truly aspire to greatness on behalf of our nation and the environment, maybe 30,000  EV sales in Oregon by 2015 isn’t such a daunting number.